Making the world a better place.

I have been thinking of what “making the world a better place” means. We aspire to that, but lack of a proper definition does not help – I obviously don’t hope to find a definition that everyone will agree with, but having one for myself would be a good start.
I subscribe to a world with the following characteristics : freedom from dogma, equal access for everyone to opportunities to improve their lives, focus on scientific progress …
Some of these ideas are as fundamental as freedom of religion (or of having no religion), belief that humans are fundamentally all equal in rights (and that any differences we make between various groups are mostly a reflection of our tendency for tribal behaviors) – and by fundamental beliefs I mean that I will have no respect for, and will fight if required, people who uphold the opposite beliefs (fundamentalism, racism …). But some other beliefs are very personal and I don’t expect others to be of the same mind (by which I guess I mean that I will respect other points of view) : belief that a secular society is better for everyone, that technological progress can and will generally be used for the overall good of people…

I just read the declaration of human rights. It is a good start, but it is extremely vague when it comes to defining socially acceptable behaviors. And it defines lofty goals for social support to individuals that are extremely difficult to define in practical terms, and different societies at different stages of development, or with different social beliefs, will need different rules there.

Does this require a new kind of social contract ?

Keeping a nation together.

Countries where different groups become isolated will have trouble with their democratic institutions. eg in France, folks who have permanent jobs cannot be fired, those who are on temp jobs stay on those or are unemployed and cannot access permanent jobs, people working in public service do a career there and never work in the private sector … All these create groups with irreconcilable differences of interests …

Social Sciences becoming true sciences – a key opportunity for our future.

I have long been thinking that Social Sciences need to become true sciences, subject to experimental verification. The counter argument so far has been that the underlying subjects are too complex and evade modelling. But before we figured out quantum mechanics and its complexities, we had to fumble our way starting with the planetary model of the atom. So social sciences should go back to basics and first try to model simple phenomenons.

Now the emergence of smartphones and explosive growth of sensors is finally providing new means of quantifying social sciences. I have been reading the book “Social Physics: How Good Ideas Spread—The Lessons from a New Science” by Alex Pentland. It’s a difficult read as the style is really poor, but the content is fascinating.
Amazon Link here.

Now think of the implications – if we knew how to really spread memes that drive peaceful cooperation towards economic prosperity in a society, we could make the rebuilding of broken states like Iraq a matter of years instead of generations.

The counterpoint is obviously that the same techniques can be used to make Nazi propaganda seem crude and inefficient. Recent examples, such as Italy under Berlusconi and Hungary under Victor Orban,  show that modern democracies do allow for concentration of media and educational powers in the wrong hands. Imagine what they could do with the power of truly impactful social sciences.

So this could be the most dramatic change in human history. We learnt to master the material world around us, we have now the opportunity to master our own individual and group Psyche. We still behave very much like the primates we evolved as, so getting a scientific grip on what drives our motives, behaviors and actions would truly be revolutionary and evolutionary !

Interesting Concepts I learnt of in 2014.

Confabulation : (Wikipedia) In psychology, Confabulation is a memory disturbance, defined as the production of fabricated, distorted or misinterpreted memories about oneself or the world, without the conscious intention to deceive. Confabulation is distinguished from lying as there is no intent to deceive and the person is unaware the information is false.
(“You are now less dumb”, David McRaney) Neuroscience now knows that confabulations are common and continuous in both the healthy and the afflicted.

Over Fit of Model : example Fukushima where available data showed fewer highest intensity earthquakes than predicted by the Gutenberg-Richter fit. Japanese experts concluded that there was an inflection in the curve, and rationalized that the geological characteristics of the region explained that. As a result, the estimate for the probability of a magnitude 9 event was 1 in 13,000 years vs the Gutenberg-Richter prediction of 1 in 300 years …

Complex System : example heap of sand. Each grain you add from top will either stay in place or go down the heap. Once in a while one will trigger a sand avalanche. Key property : large periods of apparent stasis, sudden and catastrophic failures. Not random, but so irreducibly complex that cannot be predicted beyond a certain level. Differs from Chaos theory. Theoricized by Physicist Per Bak.

Long term thinking.

A major turning point for mankind will be when we change our time horizon for societal actions from a very short term to long term ie one generation or more. Our ability to make real changes is now very high, but all our systems are geared towards short term thinking. eg in the USA we believe that sending lots of folks into jail for low level transgressions is good, but doing so we place massive amounts of folks outside of society and break them for good – the long term impact is just awful. eg if we let a generation grow without proper education, the short term impact is nothing, but it breeds disaster in the long run, which will have no quick fixes.

Random technological innovations ideas

A “brick of light” – a segment of outside wall that is pierced with minuscule holes through which fiber optics bring the light from the outside. The holes are spread out on the outside, and converge to the inside of the house to a tight pattern, that diffuses external light to the inside.

An electronic bookmark allowing synchronization between a paper book and its ebook equivalent, as well as definitions lookup and search on the paper book.

An “assisted Unicycle” – a compact mode of urban transportation on a single wheel. Uses a reaction wheel for stability assistance ?

An intelligent mattress that would real-time modify is shape to best support the sleeper’s body 🙂

Richard Feynman on Science

Richard Feynman “What is science ?”

A fit following to Nate Silver’s estimation of the high proportion of errors in scientific publications. But also a fantastic read on how to look at the world with a sense of wonder, perpetual learning and questioning.

What science is, I think, may be something like this: There was on this planet an evolution of life to a stage that there were evolved animals, which are intelligent. I don’t mean just human beings, but animals which play and which can learn something from experience–like cats. But at this stage each animal would have to learn from its own experience. They gradually develop, until some animal [primates?] could learn from experience more rapidly and could even learn from another’s experience by watching, or one could show the other, or he saw what the other one did. So there came a possibility that all might learn it, but the transmission was inefficient and they would die, and maybe the one wholearned it died, too, before he could pass it on to others.

The question is: is it possible to learn more rapidly what somebody learned from some accident than the rate at which the thing is being forgotten, either because of bad memory or because of the death of the learner or inventors?

So there came a time, perhaps, when for some species [humans?] the rate at which learning was increased, reached such a pitch that suddenly a completely new thing happened: things could be learned by one individual animal, passed on to another, and another fast enough that it was not lost to the race. Thus became possible an accumulation of knowledge of the race.

This has been called time-binding. I don’t know who first called it this. At any rate, we have here [in this hall] some samples of those animals, sitting here trying to bind one experience to another, each one trying to learn from the other.

This phenomenon of having a memory for the race, of having an accumulated knowledge passable from one generation to another, was new in the world–but it had a disease in it: it was possible to pass on ideas which were not profitable for the race. The race has ideas, but they are not necessarily profitable.

So there came a time in which the ideas, although accumulated very slowly, were all accumulations not only of practical and useful things, but great accumulations of all types of prejudices, and strange and odd beliefs.

Then a way of avoiding the disease was discovered. This is to doubt that what is being passed from the past is in fact true, and to try to find out ab initio again from experience what the situation is, rather than trusting the experience of the past in the form in which it is passed down. And that is what science is: the result of the discovery that it is worthwhile rechecking by new direct experience, and not necessarily trusting the [human] race[‘s] experience from the past. I see it that way. That is my best definition.

(…)

I can also define science another way: Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.

When someone says, “Science teaches such and such,” he is using the word incorrectly. Science doesn’t teach anything; experience teaches it. If they say to you, “Science has shown such and such,” you might ask, “How does science show it? How did the scientists find out? How? What? Where?”

It should not be “science has shown” but “this experiment, this effect, has shown.” And you have as much right as anyone else, upon hearing about the experiments–but be patient and listen to all the evidence–to judge whether a sensible conclusion has been arrived at.

In a field which is so complicated [as education] that true science is not yet able to get anywhere, we have to rely on a kind of old-fashioned wisdom, a kind of definite straightforwardness. I am trying to inspire the teacher at the bottom to have some hope and some self-confidence in common sense and natural intelligence. The experts who are leading you may be wrong.

I have probably ruined the system, and the students that are coming into Caltech no longer will be any good. I think we live in an unscientific age in which almost all the buffeting of communications and television–words, books, and so on–are unscientific. As a result, there is a considerable amount of intellectual tyranny in the name of science.

Finally, with regard to this time-binding, a man cannot live beyond the grave. Each generation that discovers something from its experience must pass that on, but it must pass that on with a delicate balance of respect and disrespect, so that the [human] race–now that it is aware of the disease to which it is liable–does not inflict its errors too rigidly on its youth, but it does pass on the accumulated wisdom, plus the wisdom that it may not be wisdom.

It is necessary to teach both to accept and to reject the past with a kind of balance that takes considerable skill. Science alone of all the subjects contains within itself the lesson of the danger of belief in the infallibility of the greatest teachers of the preceding generation.

 

PS : if you follow the link and read the whole text (highly recommended!), ignore the casual sexist comments by Feynman – hopefully meant as a joke, certainly the reflection of dominant social mores of the time, and anyways the proof that every person has their blind spots…